TEL AVIV—Israel is in the midst of the second phase of a three-phase Gaza war plan that ends with the military in full control of the strip, according to current and former officials with knowledge of the planning. The sources provided previously undisclosed details about the structure, timeline, and goals of the plan.
Phase Two began last week, and like Phase One before it, is intended to last about two months. During this time, the military will further degrade Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, take control of about 75 percent of Gaza, move all civilians into three areas in the remaining 25 percent, and work with an American organization to control the entry and distribution of humanitarian aid in the strip, the sources said.
Four aid distribution sites run by the U.S. group and secured by Israeli troops began operating in southern and central Gaza last week, according to the military.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced in a May 21 press conference that Israel’s next step in the war will be to create a “sterile zone” in the Mawasi area of southern Gaza and enable the distribution of a full spectrum of aid there. In the other two civilian zones, located in central Gaza, only food aid will be provided, not fuel and other supplies, officials confirmed.
“The goal of this new approach is to eliminate the Gazan population’s dependence on Hamas,” an Israeli official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “This method threatens the enemy’s governing foundations while maintaining compliance with international law and preserving legitimacy.”
The phased Gaza war plan reflects a new understanding by Israel’s leaders that they will have to wrest control of aid, territory, and the population from Hamas—but also continued caution, if not reluctance, to do so.
Israel’s leaders believe the Phase Two measures will largely cut off Hamas from nonfood aid as well as weapons that are smuggled into Gaza in aid trucks. But the military will not move to clear Hamas from the two civilian areas in central Gaza until Phase Three. Hamas will therefore remain embedded among the population in those areas and continue diverting food aid for now—though likely with greater difficulty under the new controls.
“As long as you have Hamas alongside the population, you cannot really put a siege on them,” said Amir Avivi, a former deputy commander of the Gaza Division with close ties to the military and government. “Only in areas you conquer you can make sure that nothing goes in.”
If by the end of Phase Two Hamas does not release all the remaining hostages, 20 said to be living and 38 dead, and surrender as Israel has demanded, the leaders plan to proceed to Phase Three. That would involve relocating all the civilians to the Hamas-free zone, laying siege to the rest of Gaza, and completely destroying Hamas.
Why wait?
The immediate goal of Phase Two is to reach a temporary ceasefire and hostage release agreement on favorable terms, according to the current and former officials. In the meantime, the plan is designed to avoid unnecessary casualties and protect the hostages, who are believed to be concentrated in the two civilian areas that will not be cleared of terrorists.
Avivi said Israel’s leaders hope they may be able to avoid Phase Three entirely—pushing Hamas to surrender by the end of Phase Two.
“Let’s say in the next two months, you kill the remaining leadership of Hamas, you take almost all of Gaza from them, and you take the aid, so they are not controlling the people anymore,” said Avivi. “Then, you might see a collapse before you need to conquer the last meter.”
In his press conference last month, Netanyahu said Israel is moving to take “security control” of “all of the Gaza Strip” with “decisive but measured steps.”
“Why measured? Because we want to achieve this with minimal losses of Israeli soldiers,” Netanyahu explained, adding, “We are working as the battle goes on not to harm the hostages.”
Netanyahu rejected growing international and domestic pressure to end the war, saying Israel would agree to a permanent ceasefire only if Hamas freed all the hostages, disarmed, and sent its leaders into exile. He also introduced a new condition: that Gazans who want to emigrate will be allowed to do so, as first advocated by President Donald Trump. But he said Israel was prepared to stop the for a “temporary ceasefire to return additional hostages—and I want to emphasize temporary.”
On Saturday, Netanyahu’s office confirmed that Israel had accepted a U.S. proposal for a temporary hostage-ceasefire agreement. Hamas responded with new demands that Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, called “totally unacceptable.”
According to a leaked draft of the proposal, Hamas would release about half of the hostages, 10 living and 18 dead, in two stages during the first week of a 60-day ceasefire. On the 10th day, Hamas would provide “complete information” on the status of the remaining hostages. In exchange, Israel would immediately allow U.N. and Red Crescent-led aid distribution in Gaza, withdraw its forces to a narrower buffer zone inside the strip, and release 1,226 living Palestinian prisoners and 180 bodies of Gazans. U.S., Egyptian, and Qatari mediators would guarantee the ceasefire and “make every effort to ensure the completion” of “serious discussions” for an end to the war during the 60 days.
Vague are key details regarding the extent of Israeli concessions. Hamas and Israeli officials, speaking anonymously to the press, have said the Palestinian terrorist group wants changes that would make it harder for Israel to resume fighting after 60 days, including a more drawn out timeline for the release of hostages.
Questions of resolve
In Israel, the signs of diplomatic progress have highlighted growing divisions over the Gaza war. Netanyahu’s political opponents—who have condemned the war in increasingly harsh terms—demanded he accept the so-called Witkoff proposal. Opposition leader Yair Lapid said in a Thursday speech that Netanyahu “must publicly and immediately accept the outline published this morning by American mediator Steve Witkoff.”
Several members of Netanyahu’s coalition, meanwhile, urged him to reject the deal, saying it would allow Hamas to regroup just as Israeli pressure is beginning to yield results.
“Enough with this salami-slicing method,” diaspora affairs minister Amichai Chikli said Thursday on X, referring to Israel’s drawn-out military campaign, which has been interrupted by two hostage-ceasefire deals. “Let the fighters complete the mission—Hamas should raise a white flag and lay down its weapons, all the hostages in exchange for the possibility of exile for the surviving Hamas leaders in Gaza.”
Ran Baratz, a former senior adviser to Netanyahu who teaches at the military’s war colleges, said the prime minister appears to be “waiting to be forced into a deal” to end the war—”maybe by Trump, maybe by Hamas.”
“Maybe something surprising will happen, and Bibi will get a much better deal than I expect—but I’m skeptical,” said Baratz. “I think the circumstances right now are strengthening Hamas rather than Israel.”
Winner’s plans, delayed
Erez Winner, a former head of the military’s Operations Directorate and a principal architect of Israel’s military plans in Gaza, advocated a rapid conquest of the strip from early in the war. But former defense minister Yoav Gallant and military chief of staff Herzi Halevi, among others, opposed taking control of aid distribution and territory in Gaza for fear of being drawn into reoccupation of Gaza. They were backed by former President Joe Biden’s administration, which pressured Israel to end the war almost as soon as it started in October 2023, including by withholding weapons shipments and threatening a complete embargo.
The result was that Israel pursued a strategy of limited raids that allowed terrorists to flee the battlefield and return once the fighting was over. For more than a year, Israeli soldiers returned to the same areas over and over again without achieving decisive results.
In a statement, Gallant stood by his opposition to holding territory in Gaza, saying, “Israel must not pay the price in blood for direct military control over Gaza, particularly when such control would not be sustainable in the long run.” He also said, “The biggest obstacle to fully defeating Hamas is not a lack of military control but the refusal of certain political figures to advance a viable alternative to its rule.”
The military, speaking on behalf of Halevi, said in a statement, “Prolonged holding of territory is a decision made by the political echelon.”
A turning point in the war came in November, when Trump won reelection to the White House, unleashing American backing and military aid for Israel. Netanyahu’s government subsequently replaced Gallant and Halevi with Israel Katz and Eyal Zamir, who were more amenable than their predecessors to military control of Gaza. In February, as a Trump-brokered ceasefire in Gaza collapsed, Israeli leaders authorized a plan to take control of Gaza in a matter of months that Winner’s team developed along with other security officials.
But days later, Winner was asked to add a preliminary phase to his plan meant to pressure Hamas to agree to a temporary-hostage ceasefire deal. In March, Winner was dismissed from duty after misplacing classified documents. After Winner’s dismissal, a third phase was added to the plan.
“My very firm opinion and thoughts weren’t easy for some people and some forces,” he said. “They worked very hard to remove me from my position, and unfortunately, they succeeded.”
Still, Winner said he believes Israel’s leaders have learned from their mistakes during the war and remain committed to defeating Hamas. The problem now, he said, is “we waited too long,” testing the patience of the public, reservists, and Israel’s biggest ally.
“Trump was more than supportive and willing to let us finish the war against Hamas three or four months ago. He sees that time has passed and Israel is not advancing—or advancing very, very slowly. So he is losing patience, and he is looking for a different answer, for different results.”
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